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Showing posts with label "UN 1973". Show all posts
Showing posts with label "UN 1973". Show all posts

3/20/2011

Who's the Daddy Now? The Revolutionary Balance of Power

It's now undeniable that universal access to information via the internet played a crucial role in the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and other countries. Global opinion is now formed and refined online, and can probably be quantified. If it had been over the last two weeks, it is fairly clear that the body of world opinion was against Moamar Gadaffi, for the Libyan people (as it was for the people of Egypt and Tunisia) and for some kind of international support for the Libyan revolution.
It is also clear that support in the form of UN 1973 relied on  Russian and Chinese abstentions, and that this could not have happened any sooner than the middle of last week. The conversion of the Russians and Chinese, alongside that of the Arab League, is being accredited to superior diplomacy. In fact it was the result of something much more interesting and basic. 
What we have been witnessing is the workings of a fine shift in the way power is directed, and political energy converted into action. 
China and Russia almost always veto any UN action against any regime. Not so much on principle, but largely out of self-preservation. These regimes cannot allow their people to have aspirations to human rights above their station, and need to pose as stout opponents of western imperialism to inspire patriotic loyalty. So while Gadaffi was just another dictator among many, clinging on clumsily but quietly, Moscow and Beijing had no difficulty in shelving any action in the usual way. He had to make himself into a monster to make enough difference to Russian and Chinese domestic opinion for their leaders to be able to afford to support 1973.
When this happened, the balance of world opinion, between the global internet on the one side, and domestic Russian and Chinese opinion on the other, tipped in favour saving Bengazi (at least) from slaughter. As well as kick-starting the Jasmine Revolution, the internet has secured its advance. But more significantly, the last month has shown just how much the old certainties are reversed. David Cameron was not the leader of the defence of Libya, he was being led. He knew what the general public were saying and had to respond in kind. On this issue, he is doing what the internet told him to do. And if role-reversal is good enough for politicians, it's good enough for bankers and Coca Cola too. Who's between the shafts of the cart now? Who's the Daddy now?
As for the future of Libya, the Jeremiahs are wrong. Firstly, there will be no 'stalemate'. Once Misratah is liberated, as it will be (better late than never) Gadaffi will have to retreat to Tripoli and his inevitable fate. The libyan people will drive him there, then rise up to topple him and his few remaining puppets.
Secondly, there will be no divide between east and west, in spite of all the legendary 'tribalism' said to infest the country and make democracy there a genetic impossibility. There may well be a miniature Northern Ireland left as a legacy of the bloodshed, as there was as a result of Britain's transition from feudalism to a form of democracy. We managed OK, eventually.

3/19/2011

'Libya isn't worth one drop of British blood!'

So the Stop the war Coalition agrees with Kelvin McKenzie. 'Libya isn't worth one drop of British blood!' And 'Cameron has gone crackers!' Which begs too many questions to bother with right now.
The fact that this is a showcase for the vital British arms industry doesn't mean its wrong. And if anyone had it coming it is Moamar Gadaffi. The opportunities far outweigh the possible disadvantages. So Jeremy Corbyn should calm down and occupy his local Gadaffi family mansion, and add his support to the people of Bengazi. When Gadaffi is gone, the other dictatorships will tremble. He is their hard man, and if he cannot resist the people, and the global opinion they have inspired, what chance for them on their golden toilet seats?

Surely the fact we sold Gadaffi his weapons means we are most obliged to stop him using them against his own people. So there is no time to start measuring Western hypocrisy on the Richter scale. Demands for integrity won't stop Gadaffi slaughtering his people. Objecting to the Relief of Bengazi is like objecting to any vessel of the criminally negligent White Star line rescuing survivors of the Titanic. The pacifist left is committing its old mistakes plus the new one of having learned nothing from the Arab revolution or the technological one. In a display of gutless, high-minded political constipation, they are still fighting the battles of the C20th, just like their opponents (and Gadaffi). Also, they are forgetting the time element here. This isn't happening in Second Life or on an XBox, it can't be paused for a nice chat about who is the most hypocritical. There is no time for moral posturing. Integrity is a luxury commodity at mid-day on March 19th. This is not a choice between evil western imperialism and evil mad dictatorship, it's a choice between the slaughter or relief of Bengazi, the future of the Libyan people, and ultimately the cause of freedom which started in Tunisia. 
When Kelvin McKenzie said 'Libya isn't worth one drop of British blood' what he really meant was 'Freedom isn't worth one drop of British blood.' The Libyan people are prepared to shed their blood, so why is British blood any more valuable?
That is a question pacifism refuses to answer, riddled with Ghandi-itis as it is. The French air force is in the sky at this moment, and trying to justify its existence. If it can't do so today, when can it? If we must have these machines and this industry, what else can they possibly be for?

3/18/2011

David Cameron Disagrees With Me

Cameron decided to agree with me throughout his Perth speech, almost word-for-word, until he tried to use UN 1973 as a glorification of our brave heroes, and a justification of the industrial military machine.
Gadaffi was a creature of the industrial military machine. Without it, there would be no need to put our brave supermen in danger over the deserts of Libya, or anywhere else.
But since making machines to kill people is Britain's only all-in manufacturing industry, it is important to display it to the world, to fill the order books. Which, for the cynics, is why Cameron organised this presentation. It's about the Deficit, really. Not blood-soaked dictators at all. The Arms Industry Circus arrives in Libya. Ringmaster, David Cameron.
Nevertheless. A friend in need is a friend in deed, and gift horses shouldn't be looked in the mouth. The Arms industry can earn its keep for once, and by keeping the revolution on the rails, assist in its own downfall. It wouldn't be the first time a vast global corporation acted suicidally.