I don't know what odds Ladbroke's are offering on where the next revolution will happen, but if Egypt is any guide it will be a despotism with a conscript army. All countries are different, obviously. But mothers are all the same in not wanting their sons to shoot their cousins or neighbours. Syria and Algeria are good bets, but there are so many dictatorships relying on kids serving their compulsory 18 or 24 months that almost any could win.
Until the revolution hits a state with a cold, detached dedicated professional army, it shouldn't meet any serious resistance, by which time that state will be so isolated and ostracised that only the most deluded elite will think of clinging to power.
Perhaps a better bet would be on the number of revolutions by the end of 2011. If the futures market gets seriously interested in this casino, we might even see that rarest of creatures, CIA intervention in the name of progress, of a sort.
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