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10/08/2007

The Election Bubble.

This is one of the biggest media bubbles of recent times.
An election scare based on the polls, which went away with the polls. Which the media needed to fuel and believe in, which the people were then convinced by the media was imminent, which made the decision of whether to hold one a media decision, not a political one.
So when the desired election failed to materialise quick enough, the media were disappointed and told the people they had been swindled out of voting for Brown - on the strength of his chancellorship, not his leadership, and on his willingness to jump at the behest of the media. And the media would much prefer a tight election than another walkover.
David Cameron summed it up.
"I'll tell you why he's not called an election - because he might lose."
Well, I never. Is the political world really that cynical that your opponents refuse to call an election when it suits you? Blimey.
In six months this will be largely forgotten by those who decide elections, as will whatever electrifying policies the Tories announced in Blackpool. Taking a few quid from the obscenely-rich with stupid accountants to give to the bereaved very rich with crafty accountants - that was about the strength of it. That'll build a lot of schools.
The country will now have a chance to judge Brown on his premiership, not on his chancellorship.
That will be an informed choice, and all the more certain because of it. And better for the country.
The fact that the media felt cheated of a huge news event in their slowest time of year, and that the tories were quick enough to spin that frustration to their advantage only made any likely election less representative of the real views of the nation. Which would not have helped the tories at all. They are not as ready for an election as they claim. In a year, they will have more ammunition, and the country will know what it thinks of the government of its prime minister, not its ex-chancellor.

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